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11/2/2000

Interesting Poll analysis: the Democrats

Filed under:General — eric @ 2:16 am

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Interesting Poll analysis: the Democrats right now are bemoaning that as Ralph Nader surges in the polls in key swing states, he’s taking votes away from Al Gore, thus throwing the states and the election to George Bush. It sounds logical, and the press has run with the coverage. But MSNBC has rolling poll results from five key swing states, and I’m just not seeing it. As Nader climbs, Gore stays steady (see Washington), falls (Florida), or even climbs (Pennsylvania). And where he falls, it’s George Bush has climbed by almost equal amounts. I can see no correlation at all between Nader and Gore. None! My conclusion, based on the data from these five states, a vote for Nader is NOT a vote for Bush. Nader’s votes are, for the most part, from people who would not have voted for either other candidate anyway. (Note: I fully realize that there are more than three candidates. But right now, the others don’t matter. It was nice to see Browne finally crack 1% on CNN’s polls, though.)

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